Draw scenario lab
How many draws would it take?
Pick a score and a draw category. We show how many candidates sit at or above it in IRCC's latest pool snapshot, then the plain arithmetic for three draw sizes you choose. These are scenarios you can check by hand, not predictions.
Your score and assumptions
No General draws in the last 12 months, so these are placeholders. Change them to test your own.
What IRCC's data shows
At or above your score
47,459
of 228,724 candidates in the pool, at or above 480, in the snapshot of October 28, 2026
Change above your score
-212
since the snapshot of August 4, 2026. This is the net change: new profiles and higher scores, minus people invited or leaving.
Lowest recent cutoff
–
No General draws in the last 12 months
The arithmetic
How many draws of each size it would take to invite everyone now at or above your score, if your assumption about newcomers held. Each sum is shown so you can check it.
Smaller draw
95 draws
47,459 ÷ (500 − 0) = 94.9, rounded up to 95
Typical draw
32 draws
47,459 ÷ (1,500 − 0) = 31.6, rounded up to 32
Larger draw
16 draws
47,459 ÷ (3,000 − 0) = 15.8, rounded up to 16
What this cannot tell you
- When the next draw will be, or how big. IRCC decides both, and the sizes above are only what you chose.
- Who is eligible for a category. The pool snapshot is not split by category.
- Ties and timing. The snapshot is a single day; the pool keeps moving between snapshots.
- Your own chances. This is arithmetic on public numbers, not a probability, and it is not advice.